Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Poised to Surpass $350 Billion by 2035 as Global Demand Accelerates
A Rapidly Expanding Market for Cleaner Aviation
The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is projected to reach approximately $357.4 billion by 2035, according to new data from Precedence Research. The sector is expected to experience particularly strong acceleration from 2030 onward, reflecting a sharp shift in how the aviation industry approaches decarbonization.This growth represents a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 65.56% between 2026 and 2035. The market, currently valued at $2.31 billion, is forecast to nearly double to $3.82 billion next year, with momentum continuing as airlines, governments, and energy producers scale up commitments to sustainable fuel alternatives.
Airline Demand and Regulation Drive Momentum
Rising demand from commercial airlines remains one of the primary forces behind the market’s expansion. As carriers face increasing pressure to meet emissions targets, SAF has emerged as the most viable near-term solution for reducing carbon output without requiring new aircraft fleets.At the same time, evolving regulatory frameworks and government incentives—particularly in North America and Europe—are encouraging investment across production facilities, feedstock development, and global supply chains. These combined factors are laying the groundwork for exponential growth over the next decade.
Regional Shifts and Major Markets
While Asia Pacific led the sustainable aviation fuel market in 2024, North America has taken the top position this year, now accounting for 47.11% of global market share. The region’s leadership is supported by strong policy backing, airline offtake agreements, and expanding production capacity—particularly in the United States.Other regions are expected to follow, but North America is likely to remain a dominant force as infrastructure and regulatory clarity continue to improve.
Feedstocks and Processing Technologies Evolve
By feedstock type, vegetable oils currently lead the market, representing 36.11% of total capacity. However, the waste oils and fats segment is forecast to grow at the fastest rate over the coming years, reflecting sustainability concerns and efforts to reduce competition with food supply chains.From a technology standpoint, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) presently dominate with a 41.23% market share. Over the next decade, however, Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis is expected to overtake HEFA, driven by its ability to utilize a broader range of feedstocks and scale production more efficiently.
Commercial Aviation Leads Consumption
The commercial aviation segment currently accounts for approximately 71.09% of total SAF usage and is projected to maintain its dominance throughout the forecast period. As airlines integrate SAF into long-term sustainability strategies, adoption rates are expected to rise steadily.Meanwhile, private and business aviation is also gaining traction and is expected to represent around 10% of total SAF consumption by the end of the forecast period, reflecting growing environmental accountability among corporate and high-net-worth travelers.
Production Capacity Set to Accelerate
Precedence Research notes that there are currently only three major commercial producers of sustainable aviation fuel: World Energy, Neste, and Montana Renewables LLC. However, production capacity is expected to increase rapidly, particularly in the United States.“Many airlines have signed agreements with existing and future SAF producers to use all their expected output,” the report stated, highlighting how long-term offtake agreements are de-risking new investments and accelerating facility development.
U.S. Consumption Data Signals Strong Growth
Data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), collected under the Renewable Fuel Standard, illustrates the sector’s upward trajectory. According to the EPA, SAF consumption in the United States reached approximately 5 million gallons in 2021, rising to 15.84 million gallons in 2022, and further increasing to 24.5 million gallons in 2023.These figures underscore how quickly sustainable aviation fuel is moving from pilot-scale deployment to a core component of aviation’s energy future—positioning the market for transformative growth through 2035 and beyond.
